Use median attainment in capacity planning
This is why median is a better metric in this case.
The median attainment for scenario 1 is 80%, identical to the average. The median for the second scenario is 50%.
How does this hurt companies? Let’s assume this hypothetical company planned using 80% (average) but achieved only 50% (median). The company would hire about 40% fewer account executives than they would need to achieve their plan.
And as anyone who operates a SaaS company knows, these businesses compound. A much better year next year compounds over and over.
If AE quota attainment follows a uniform distribution, then using the average is fine because it’s the same as the median. But I can tell you with a decades' worth of experience, more AE quota attainment charts resemble the second scenario than the first, especially in the early days.